Back

How much does the USA NEED Canada's resources? Check out this post by Sharon Hayes (fb):

David vs. Goliath: Canada’s Mineral Power vs. America’s Hunger
It doesn't make sense. One day Trump wants to annex Canada, then it's we "should have always been part of the U.S.," then it is "the U.S. doesn't need" us. So which is it and what is really going on?
I've gone through SO much information trying to get to the bottom of this. I've come to the conclusion that our mineral reserves are at the heart of a lot of it.
The reality is that the U.S. needs our minerals to keep their economy, factories, and military humming. Trump’s annexation chatter is a smokescreen: they’d collapse without us. Moves we've been making pose a real threat.
Minerals - not oil, electricity, or water- are our secret weapon.
Today we're going to dive in and take a look. There's a lot to unpack and, as long as this post is, I've cut it down to 1/3!
Bet you didn’t know Canada’s mineral exports look small but pack a huge punch. We shipped $29.8 billion worth to the U.S. in 2023 (National Observer) - peanuts next to oil’s $123 billion (NRCan, 2024).
Here’s the shocker: 𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐟𝐮𝐞𝐥 $𝟒.𝟎𝟖 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 $𝟐𝟖.𝟖 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 - 14% of everything they’ve got (USGS, Jan 30, 2025). From electric cars to artificial intelligence, they’re hooked, and we’re the ones holding the sling. What's more, the tech/AI moves are causing an increase in reliance on minerals- our minerals.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬: 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚’𝐬 𝐀𝐫𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐄𝐝𝐠𝐞
What’s the big deal with Canada’s minerals on the world stage?
Stick around. We’re diving into why the Arctic’s a treasure chest everyone’s eyeing, and I’ve got a story about spotting this early.
A couple of weeks ago, I kept seeing signals nudging me to dig deeper into the Arctic.
How much untapped wealth is up there? Turns out, a ton! Experts peg it at over $1 trillion in minerals like rare earths, gold, and uranium, just waiting under the ice (USGS).
𝑅𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟: 𝑖𝑡'𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 $ 𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒, 𝑖𝑡'𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡'𝑠 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡.
Melting polar caps, shrinking 13% a decade (NOAA, 2024), are making it easier to grab, and I couldn’t shake the feeling this was big.
China’s got a lock on refining 60-90% of REEs, cobalt, nickel, and lithium (USGS, 2025), and they’re sniffing around our Arctic too - a deal with them could flip the U.S. upside down. Our Arctic’s a goldmine, and I knew it’d heat up fast.
Yesterday proved I was on the right track.
On March 18, Canada and Australia teamed up for a new Arctic radar system - $6 billion to spot threats early.
PM Mark Carney was in Iqaluit meeting Nunavut’s Premier P.J. Akeeagok (CBC New ) where he pledged $420 million to boost our military up north and $253 million for local projects.
We send the U.S. 28 of their 50 critical minerals, 12 are not available from any other source (CSIS, Nov 13, 2024), and they’re scrambling.
2024’s US Arctic Strategy ramps up troops in Alaska, eyes Greenland, and leans on one creaky icebreaker, Polar Star, against Russia’s 40 (DOD, June 2024). This didn't start with Trump.
They’re pushing NATO too: Finland and Sweden’s new muscle claiming it’s about Russia’s 38-million-ton Northern Sea Route and China’s Polar Silk Road. But Russia’s stretched thin from Ukraine, and the U.S. “defense” is a grab for our stash.
𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐋𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞: 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚’𝐬 𝐆𝐫𝐢𝐩 𝐨𝐧 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐲
Ever wonder how much the U.S. leans on us to keep their big industries alive? Here’s the scoop on what’s at stake if Canada pulls the plug.
The U.S. counts on our minerals to power their heavy hitters.
If we cut mineral exports by just 20%, their economy could lose $576 billion (CSIS, July 18, 2023).
Their electric vehicle industry, worth $150 billion, needs our nickel, cobalt, lithium, and graphite (IEA, 2024).
Artificial intelligence, driving billions in tech breakthroughs, relies on our copper, rare earths, and lithium for chips and servers (BEA, 2025).
Defense, a $900 billion juggernaut, runs on our REEs, cobalt, uranium, and gold (CSIS, Nov 13, 2024).
Tech overall, pulling in $2 trillion, depends on our REEs, copper, and gold (BEA).
The gun industry - $19 billion civilian, $10 billion military - relies on our copper, zinc, and nickel for ammo and barrels, plus uranium for DU rounds, keeping 150,000 retail and range jobs alive (NSSF; DOD).
Renewables, worth $300 billion, use our copper and graphite (USGS).
Farming, a $1.2 trillion giant, can’t grow without our potash (USDA).
𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚’𝐬 𝐌𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫: 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 & 𝐀𝐥𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬
Want to know what Canada’s got that the U.S. can’t match and why they’re stuck with us? Let’s dig into the minerals they crave.
Canada’s got the goods the U.S. can’t live without, and their backups are shaky.
Canada pumps out 179,000 tonnes of nickel, 6th in the world (NRCan, 2024), while the U.S. scrapes by with 17,000 tonnes (USGS); their next option is Indonesia’s 1.2 million tonnes, tied up with China.
We’ve got 220,000 tonnes of cobalt, 3rd globally (NRCan), while the U.S. manages just 500 tonnes, down 40% (USGS); they’d have to lean on Congo’s shaky 70% share.
Canada’s sitting on 15.2 million tonnes of untapped REEs, while the U.S. has 2.3 million tonnes but can’t refine them (Mining.com, Jan 15); China handles 63% of the world’s supply.
We produce 41 million tonnes of graphite, 2nd worldwide (NRCan), while the U.S. makes none and imports every bit (USGS); China mines 67% of it.
Canada’s got 400,000 tonnes of lithium in reserves (National Observer; Sayona Mining), while the U.S. has 1 million tonnes but no refining (USGS); Chile’s 9.6 million tonnes are too far.
We churn out 7,441 tonnes of uranium, 2nd globally (NRCan), while the U.S. covers just 1% at home (USGS); Kazakhstan’s supply’s a gamble.
Canada delivers 5.5 million tonnes of copper, in the top 10 (NRCan), while the U.S. gets 1.2 million tonnes (USGS); Chile’s unstable output is their fallback.
We produce 300,000 tonnes of zinc, 4th worldwide (NRCan), while the U.S. imports half its needs; Peru’s slow to deliver.
Canada leads with 14 million tonnes of potash, 40% of the world’s total (NRCan), while the U.S. makes just 5% at home (USGS); Russia’s sanctioned supply is off the table.
We produce 175 tonnes of gold, 4th globally (NRCan), while the U.S. gets 170 tonnes (USGS); Australia’s 330 tonnes are a long haul away.
This is NOT everything but I gave you enough to see the issue.
𝐂𝐚𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐔𝐬? 𝐍𝐨𝐩𝐞.
Think the U.S. could ditch us and mine their own? Here’s why they’re years away from even trying.
The U.S. can’t swap out Canada’s minerals anytime soon; it’s a pipe dream.
Boosting nickel takes $2 billion and 10 years (EY Canada, 2022).
Cobalt needs $1.5 billion and 8 years.
Rare earth refining costs $1.2 billion and 7-15 years, with no tech to pull it off (Mining.com, Jan 15).
Starting graphite from scratch means $3 billion and 12 years (CSIS, Aug 31, 2023).
Lithium refining’s $1 billion and 6 years away.
Add it up: $20 billion-plus, 6-15 years, and a pile of red tape. They'd also run into the issue of needing to have sufficient trained miners which takes time. But that's ignoring that the U.S. just can't create many of the necessary minerals out of thin air. They’re stuck with us.
𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐈𝐬𝐧’𝐭 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐖𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐀𝐥𝐥 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐞𝐬?
With all this mineral muscle, why aren’t we running the show?
Here’s the dirt on why Canada’s not flexing harder and what’s holding us back.
We’ve got the reserves: $1 trillion in the Arctic alone (USGS), plus leaders like 14 million tonnes of potash (NRCan). Exports hit $29.8 billion to the U.S. in 2023 (National Observer). Mining pumped out $74.6 billion in 2022 (NRCan), with potash at 23%, gold at 18%, and coal at 17%. Sounds impressive, doesn’t it?
But we’re stuck in neutral. Exploration’s slipping: $4.1 billion in 2022 dropped to $3.7 billion in 2023 (NRCan). We’re not a top dog in critical stuff like lithium or rare earths anymore (Mining Association of Canada, 2023). So what’s the deal?
Here’s why we’re not cashing in bigger:
Red tape’s a killer: Permitting a new mine takes 10-15 years with federal and provincial hoops (Canadian Mining Journal, Feb 2025).
Infrastructure’s a mess: Remote deposits need roads, rails, and power, but the North’s got squat, costing us $1 billion yearly in delays (CBC, 2023).
Miners make good money: $98,000 a year on average (StatCan) but we're not luring enough folks to cash in.
China’s refining 60-90% of the world’s critical minerals (USGS), while we ship raw ore instead of finished goods. Important to point out that this is an issue for us with crude oil vs refined oil!
Warming’s a mixed bag: Melting ice opens $1T in Arctic goodies, but we’re too slow to grab it (NOAA, 2024).
We’ve got the sling, but we’re tripping over our own feet.
𝐔.𝐒. 𝐅𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐟 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐚 𝐏𝐮𝐥𝐥𝐬 𝐁𝐚𝐜𝐤
What happens if Canada tightens the screws? Buckle up: this is how fast the U.S. could unravel, with AI and their economy taking a long-term beating.
If Canada cuts mineral exports, the U.S. hits a wall. Their stockpile’s a measly 3-6 months for cobalt and zinc - barely a Band-Aid when we pull back (DLA).
In 90 days, electric cars could come grinding to a halt, losing $50 billion and 100,000 jobs (IEA).
AI stumbles as chip production slows - $20 billion gone, 50,000 jobs, and their $248 billion AI edge slips (Statista, 2025; BEA).
1 of 2
Cont.