Going into the weekend the most critical thing to be paying attention to is this MAGA rally happening in DC.

From the chatter that has trickled itself down into my awareness, it seems like a number of things are happening here, all of which indicate the possible directions of things to come.

The first of these dynamics of the size of the crowd that is expected. There have not been any official estimates released yet. But, we can see a bit of what will happen from the rallies last weekend.

Last weekend we saw Trump attempt to organize rallies all across the US, and they were an abject, total, failure.

Sure, they got a couple thousand to show up in Philly (that is a generous estimate), but in most places the attendance was 300 or less.

This is important for two reasons. First, we can compare this to demonstrations from this May, where thousands were showing up in each city.

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These attendees were almost entirely local to where they were acting. This rally in Philly last weekend drew MAGA people from all over the US. If we eliminate this, and just look at local demonstrations, they were drawing 10% or less of the number of demonstrations in May and June in those same areas.

When we then calculate that DC is far away for a lot of people, and expensive to travel to, I think it is fair to say that 5%-10% of the total number from last weekend will be there in DC.

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So, and this is generous, assume that 20,000 MAGA people came out last weekend, we can assume that this will equate to 1000-2000 people in DC, which is a small demonstration for DC.

If they are able to draw more than this then we can assume that they are successfully building energy. If they draw less than this, we can reasonably conclude that the attempt to mobilize popular support for the whole "the election was stolen" position is failing.

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If this position starts to fail we will likely start to see this whole incipient coup attempt start to fizzle out, move into the courts, and eventually become just another slogan conservatives repeat to one another, but which does not lead directly to violence.

If they can get good turnout, and by that I mean over 10,000, then the chances that the MAGA crowd will get energized, and political violence will increase, is higher than it is today.

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The second dynamic to pay attention to here is the way that this is covered within conservative news, specifically on Fox.

Since the beginning of this week there has been a distinct split among Fox hosts, with Carlson and Ingraham encouraging people to move on and Hannity encouraging the Biden stole the vote narrative.

The news division has also split from the elements of the opinion division who have been parroting Trump's misinformation, with reporters openly calling out lies on the air.

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Now, each of the factions within Fox are starting to form around the interests of the protagonists.

For Carlson this is about becoming a figure in MAGA world and preparing them for a world after Trump.

For Ingraham this is about returning to a focused paleo-conservativism that was ascendant within conservative circles before Trumpism.

For Hannity this is about maintaining connections to Trump and the power that he has accumulated within that relationship.

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These divisions compound the divisions already forming within the Right at the moment. For "moderate" Republicans the defeat of Trump is an opportunity for them to regain control over the Party. This is why some have come out against Trump; specifically Kasich, Romney, Dewine, etc.

This moderate faction is stuck in a bind though. To win the runoff elections in Georgia they need to maintain energy, and have started mimicking the more moderate Trumpian position (all votes need to be counted).

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By mimicking this position they are hoping to have enough energy to avoid losing both Georgia Senate seats and, with it, control of the Senate.

At the same time, if they encourage the Trumpian line too much, they risk not being able to consolidate control over the Republican Party.

The way that demonstrations play out this weekend will directly impact the approach being taken here.

The third element is the way that the rally expresses the new fractures within the activist Far Right.

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There are a number of different factions that have started organizing around this weekend using completely different themes and names for the event. There is no organization that is clearly bottom-lining anything to the point where they have not applied for permits yet, which are necessary to use the Capitol Hill District parks and resources in any sort of an official capacity.

Different personalities have also started to try to leverage this for their own ends.

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Nick Fuentes, for example, has been trying to use this to hold a mini-tour of events on his way to DC. Figures within the Proud Boys are trying to do the same, as are various other white nationalist groups.

These fractures are all lining up along the contours of splits we have already seen within the Right as of late, with conflict within the Proud Boys over leadership and direction, and with the dissolution of American Identity Movement, clearly over a strategic disagreement.

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So, the Right is going into this weekend needing a huge win, but in the process are fragmenting along factional lines.

If that fragmentation continues it is likely that the whole event will fall apart, and become a huge embarrassment, delegitimizing both Trumpian narratives around the election as well as various factions of the Far Right.

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If this weekend falls apart for the MAGA crowd, and it looks like its heading this way, the scenario will change dramatically.

We will move from a scenario built around needing to defend ourselves against MAGA attacks on our communities, to watching (and hopefully facilitating) a general collapse of the administration, as their lawsuits fail and they continue to fail to mobilize support in the streets.

This does not mean that things wil be over, but they will definitely be heading that way.

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@tom_nomad Jeez, I dunno... what was that saying about how a wounded beast is most dangerous when it's cornered...?


So, even though turnout was unexpectedly large, I still am not convinced that this changes anything.

The MAGA coalition that turned up was smaller in number, in total, last weekend than the weekend before it, by about 50% (if we take all demonstrations nationally). That tells me that they are losing energy, not gaining energy, in total.

That doesn't mean that things will not be bad for a while, they will be, but I don't think this means a coup will be successful.

@tom_nomad Losing energy? Hell, man, those goddamn scum are gonna be infesting my city again in about 3 weeks or so. They're gonna be assaulting people and the goddamn cops are gonna stand around and let 'em do it.

Oh yeah, that is true, but in general, outside of DC and Georgia, they have really dropped in overall energy. This has become more and more the case as more states certify results and more and more Republican politicians come out and start talking about Biden as president-elect.

The real problem, at this point, is the way that these points of condensation, like DC, are becoming points around which the new MAGA coalition will form and begin to take on their own trajectory.

@tom_nomad Not that it matters, when you see what the Democrats have lined up for us. I'm actually HOPING for a coup; after the shit the DNC pulled in the primaries, it'd serve their rotten asses right.

We need more than to facilitate the collapse of just one Presidential administration. We need to facilitate the collapse of America.

Go big, or go home.

@tom_nomad They sure as hell didn't fail to mobilize support in the streets here in DC last week. Those motherfuckers stabbed three people while the goddamn cops stood around and watched.

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