Reminder that this is the chart shows the carbon reduction that we are expected to believe the state and capitalism can somehow pull off.
lol, ya, there is no way carbon emissions are going down that precipitously, even in the case of "civilizational collapse", "total revolution", or "radical red-green new deal (lmao)". frankly, i seriously doubt any non-state or anti-capitalist global "solution" could reduce carbon emissions this drastically and quickly either. best to anticipate continual disaster, build resilient comms/resource networks, and foster a mindset of "solidaristic prepping".
@goldcarrot I find it hard to believe there would still be these emissions if civilization collapsed.
except in the case of total annihilation in the case of unbridled nuclear war, civilizational collapse would likely be a long, drawn-out process. i pretty much agree that “no civ=no emissions”, but getting to “no civ” will take a lot longer than 50 years (for better or for worse). total collapse would happen in small bursts and pockets, but there will be no singular apocalypse, and some parts of emissions-heavy civ will be tenacious.
my point should have emphasized “precipitously”.
@goldcarrot so maybe society would break down, but industrial forces would continue, perhaps reverting to their original form where they would lock people inside factories
maybe. no doubt civ forces would have to crank up repression, surveillance and labor coercion to maintain itself in the face of a worsening climate.
i think we’re likely to see a defacto breakdown of larger state power into micro states. borders harden, society gets tighter, stricter control of life within those spaces, more force used to maintain status quo. however, those civ spaces won’t be able to control everything they used to — the areas of degraded land and abandoned hinterlands may become spaces of non-state, non-civ forms of living.
so i think civ will endure for a while, but while decline and consolidate to save itself.
not to sound cliche, but… have you read “Desert”? some good ideas, i’m not totally on board with its orientation, but it’s a solid start to thinking about civ, climate disaster, and the future.
@goldcarrot yep, i listened to a couple audiobooks and read some footnotes. i was thinking about parable of the sower when i replied.
@anarchistbicycleclub yeah wild, remember how many people stopped working on the lockdowns and how little of a dent it made in emissions!
@aaaaargZombies It seemed like the smog lifted all over the world when the work shut down, but that was only a dent in emissions?
> global carbon dioxide emissions fell by 6.4%, or 2.3 billion tonnes, in 2020
So you can imagine the sort of total transformation of the world as we know it that would be required for net 0.
@anarchistbicycleclub If emissions don't go down many die. But when many die, emissions also go down. It's probably not a perfectly safe dynamic to explore much more.
I fear those in power did give up on 1.5 and are satisfied with 2.0 or more. They can afford private armies or weapons, water, ACs, air filters and expensive, safe environments - or move into space...
@maxi @anarchistbicycleclub The problem is that even "the people" don't seem to care. Or they are manipulated and don't get the information they need to decide on the right path.
We own a terraced house with 100 sqm. The central heating of the entire complex had to be replaced (in was built in 1996). The majority decided (on lacking information, the presentation of 4 different possibilities fi didn't include the energy costs, esp in the future) on a CHP (fossil gas not
Biogas), which would use more gas than the old gas engine, where we are unable to use or sell all the generated electric power due to burocratic bs in Germany, and where we are locked in fossils for the next 20 years! Not SWH (needs isolated piping to every roof), not geothermal (our! parking spaces) or heat pumps (too loud)... And, of course, the cheapest company (how can they do that, I wonder). We (and every tennant) don't have a choice.
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